It seems like the AI risk mitigation solutions you’ve listed aren’t mutually exclusive, but we’ll likely have to use a combination of them to succeed. While I agree that it would be ideal for us to end up with a FAS, the pathway towards the outcome would likely involve “sponge coordination” and “pivotal acts” as mechanisms by which our civilization can buy some time before FAS.
A possible scenario in a world where FAS takes some time (chronological):
“sponge coordination” with the help of various AI policy work
one cause-aligned lab executes a “pivotal act” with their (not Friendly FAS, but likely corrigible) AI and ends the period of vulnerability from humanity being a sponge; now the vulnerability lies on the human operators running this Pivotal Act AI.
FAS takeover, happy ending!
Of course we wouldn’t need all of this if FAS happens to be the first capable AGI to be developed, (kinda unlikely in my model). I would like to know what scenarios you think are most likely to happen (or should aim towards), or if I overlooked any other pathways. (also relevant)
It seems like the AI risk mitigation solutions you’ve listed aren’t mutually exclusive, but we’ll likely have to use a combination of them to succeed. While I agree that it would be ideal for us to end up with a FAS, the pathway towards the outcome would likely involve “sponge coordination” and “pivotal acts” as mechanisms by which our civilization can buy some time before FAS.
A possible scenario in a world where FAS takes some time (chronological):
“sponge coordination” with the help of various AI policy work
one cause-aligned lab executes a “pivotal act” with their (not Friendly FAS, but likely corrigible) AI and ends the period of vulnerability from humanity being a sponge; now the vulnerability lies on the human operators running this Pivotal Act AI.
FAS takeover, happy ending!
Of course we wouldn’t need all of this if FAS happens to be the first capable AGI to be developed, (kinda unlikely in my model). I would like to know what scenarios you think are most likely to happen (or should aim towards), or if I overlooked any other pathways. (also relevant)