Since the virus grows exponentially (when R>1), and it seems unlikely that it’ll be actually eradicated (due to outliers on infection times, groups who isolate together, but slowly transmit it among the group, and simple leaks in enforcement/adoption), it’s best to think of this kind of intervention as “how much does it reduce the infectious population”?
It seems likely that, with the vaccines rolling out (too slowly, but happening), any significant reduction in the spread makes the final herd immunity (actual end-game for this) contain a higher ratio of vaccinated to formerly-infected, and a lower absolute number of dead and a lower amount of long-term impacted. So you get much of the value, even if the disease is only set back a few months, not fully eliminated.
Which means, you can look at the reasons that this isn’t happening (in most US and EU regions) even enough to slow the spread, and just extend them to why we haven’t shut down enough to stop it entirely. I think 4 is a very hard constraints, with 3 being close, and they give cover to the violators of 1, making policing effectively impossible. I also think you have to dive pretty deep into 1 to explain who’s doing the policing, and why they’re willing to go out and police (which does mean shooting and being shot at, right?) rather than staying safe at home.
Since the virus grows exponentially (when R>1), and it seems unlikely that it’ll be actually eradicated (due to outliers on infection times, groups who isolate together, but slowly transmit it among the group, and simple leaks in enforcement/adoption), it’s best to think of this kind of intervention as “how much does it reduce the infectious population”?
It seems likely that, with the vaccines rolling out (too slowly, but happening), any significant reduction in the spread makes the final herd immunity (actual end-game for this) contain a higher ratio of vaccinated to formerly-infected, and a lower absolute number of dead and a lower amount of long-term impacted. So you get much of the value, even if the disease is only set back a few months, not fully eliminated.
Which means, you can look at the reasons that this isn’t happening (in most US and EU regions) even enough to slow the spread, and just extend them to why we haven’t shut down enough to stop it entirely. I think 4 is a very hard constraints, with 3 being close, and they give cover to the violators of 1, making policing effectively impossible. I also think you have to dive pretty deep into 1 to explain who’s doing the policing, and why they’re willing to go out and police (which does mean shooting and being shot at, right?) rather than staying safe at home.