Two major objections to the bio-anchors 30-year-median conclusion might be:
The whole thing is laundering vibes into credible-sounding headline numbers.
Even if we stipulate that the methodology is sound, it measures an upper bound, not a median.
To me, (2) is the more obvious error. I basically buy (1) too, but I don’t think we’ve gotten empirical evidence, since (2).
I guess there’s a sense in which a mistake on (2) could be seen as a consequence of (1) - but it seems distinct: it’s a logic error, not a free parameter. I do think it’s useful to distinguish [motivated reasoning in free-parameter choice] from [motivated reasoning in error-checking].
It’s not so obvious to me that the bio-anchors report was without foundation as an upper bound estimate.
I don’t think this is quite right.
Two major objections to the bio-anchors 30-year-median conclusion might be:
The whole thing is laundering vibes into credible-sounding headline numbers.
Even if we stipulate that the methodology is sound, it measures an upper bound, not a median.
To me, (2) is the more obvious error. I basically buy (1) too, but I don’t think we’ve gotten empirical evidence, since (2).
I guess there’s a sense in which a mistake on (2) could be seen as a consequence of (1) - but it seems distinct: it’s a logic error, not a free parameter. I do think it’s useful to distinguish [motivated reasoning in free-parameter choice] from [motivated reasoning in error-checking].
It’s not so obvious to me that the bio-anchors report was without foundation as an upper bound estimate.