Note that the indices you’re tracking are _already_ giant averages. I would love to see an analysis of how crashes change the composition of the indices, and whether there’s any predictability in sector or individual big winners and losers.
I want to think that a crash is a fragility sieve, which accelerates the creative destruction of capitalism. Over-leveraged companies, and those very dependent on whimsy and excess take a bigger hit than those with depth of assets and a solid value chain to a durable market. And I suspect that’s not how it actually works—companies big enough to measure this way are simply too complex for those stories to apply.
Indeed this analysis would be interesting, though I don’t know if long-term enough data (e.g. a century’s worth) is available in this level of detail.
I assume there might indeed be clearer patterns in how individual companies’ prices react, perhaps depending on their size and liquidity. Though again I expect most, if not all, of any predictability has disappeared in recent decades.
Note that the indices you’re tracking are _already_ giant averages. I would love to see an analysis of how crashes change the composition of the indices, and whether there’s any predictability in sector or individual big winners and losers.
I want to think that a crash is a fragility sieve, which accelerates the creative destruction of capitalism. Over-leveraged companies, and those very dependent on whimsy and excess take a bigger hit than those with depth of assets and a solid value chain to a durable market. And I suspect that’s not how it actually works—companies big enough to measure this way are simply too complex for those stories to apply.
Indeed this analysis would be interesting, though I don’t know if long-term enough data (e.g. a century’s worth) is available in this level of detail.
I assume there might indeed be clearer patterns in how individual companies’ prices react, perhaps depending on their size and liquidity. Though again I expect most, if not all, of any predictability has disappeared in recent decades.