I like this line of thinking—it’s about actual limited resources rather than abstractions like “capital” or “interest rates”. But I suspect it’s got the same problems, especially uneven distribution of changes in an anti-inductive way (because competition for acquisition knows more than you do).
Identification of “prime” real estate locations is likely to be difficult and competitive. It seems unlikely that all land will become outsized in importance, only … what? Farmland likely to be about as valuable as today—the automate-able high-yield acreage is worth a whole lot, the barren rocky deserts very little. Some mineral rights will go up a lot in value, but that’s pretty forecast-able, and likely priced in. Housing and cities are primarily limited by regulation and economics, and ALSO there are lots of companies using pretty sophisticated models to predict values, better than most individuals can.
I like this line of thinking—it’s about actual limited resources rather than abstractions like “capital” or “interest rates”. But I suspect it’s got the same problems, especially uneven distribution of changes in an anti-inductive way (because competition for acquisition knows more than you do).
Identification of “prime” real estate locations is likely to be difficult and competitive. It seems unlikely that all land will become outsized in importance, only … what? Farmland likely to be about as valuable as today—the automate-able high-yield acreage is worth a whole lot, the barren rocky deserts very little. Some mineral rights will go up a lot in value, but that’s pretty forecast-able, and likely priced in. Housing and cities are primarily limited by regulation and economics, and ALSO there are lots of companies using pretty sophisticated models to predict values, better than most individuals can.