A prediction by a good predictor that’s made in one minute isn’t as valuable as one made by spending a few hours of research. “What will be my income in 2025 if I switch to X career?” is a question for which making a good forcast not only needs forcasting skills but also research or a lot of existing knowledge.
The ranked list doesn’t tell you whether or not someone is a superforcasters. Metaculus could tell you but they don’t offer that kind of information publically. They use predictive skill to calculate their metaculus prediction in a way that’s completely separate from the ranking score.
Superforcasting as a service also exists but more in a consulting model that sells a higher quality product for a higher price.
A prediction by a good predictor that’s made in one minute isn’t as valuable as one made by spending a few hours of research. “What will be my income in 2025 if I switch to X career?” is a question for which making a good forcast not only needs forcasting skills but also research or a lot of existing knowledge.
The ranked list doesn’t tell you whether or not someone is a superforcasters. Metaculus could tell you but they don’t offer that kind of information publically. They use predictive skill to calculate their metaculus prediction in a way that’s completely separate from the ranking score.
Superforcasting as a service also exists but more in a consulting model that sells a higher quality product for a higher price.