Isn’t singling out individual market participants as ‘superforecasters’, and privileging their individual predictions based on past performance, missing the whole point of prediction markets?
Yes. I would still use it though. For grand-scheme-of-things stuff, Metaculus is great. For stuff that’s personally relevant (What will be my income in 2025 if I switch to X career?) predictions from people with great track records is good enough for me.
Note that the title is super-forecasters as a service, not prediction-markets as a service.
Isn’t singling out individual market participants as ‘superforecasters’, and privileging their individual predictions based on past performance, missing the whole point of prediction markets?
Yes. I would still use it though. For grand-scheme-of-things stuff, Metaculus is great. For stuff that’s personally relevant (What will be my income in 2025 if I switch to X career?) predictions from people with great track records is good enough for me.
Note that the title is super-forecasters as a service, not prediction-markets as a service.