Given that market participants insure against risks with the prediction market and the event of the Brexit does carry risk to some businesses I’m not sure that’s empircally the case.
Possibly we (meaning I vs Epicurean Dealmaker) have a very different notion of ‘elite’. I imagine the elite as the 10% (or 5% or 1%, depending on your Pareto distribution) which has enough capital to hedge against market fluctuations (or enough to create it entirely); as far as I understand instead ED means as ‘elite’ anyone who has enough money to invest in a market.
I don’t think this is the issue. If you invest $10m into some market position, your “opinion” literally has one million times the impact of someone who invested $10. It’s not just “people who invest” vs “people who do not invest”. Even among those who invest, the more capital you apply, the more your opinion matters.
Markets are inherently capital-weighted and their opinion necessarily reflects the positions of the rich to a much greater degree.
The thing is, the markets reflect committed-capital-weighted opinions of market participants. This is not an egalitarian democracy.
Given that market participants insure against risks with the prediction market and the event of the Brexit does carry risk to some businesses I’m not sure that’s empircally the case.
Possibly we (meaning I vs Epicurean Dealmaker) have a very different notion of ‘elite’.
I imagine the elite as the 10% (or 5% or 1%, depending on your Pareto distribution) which has enough capital to hedge against market fluctuations (or enough to create it entirely); as far as I understand instead ED means as ‘elite’ anyone who has enough money to invest in a market.
I don’t think this is the issue. If you invest $10m into some market position, your “opinion” literally has one million times the impact of someone who invested $10. It’s not just “people who invest” vs “people who do not invest”. Even among those who invest, the more capital you apply, the more your opinion matters.
Markets are inherently capital-weighted and their opinion necessarily reflects the positions of the rich to a much greater degree.