We know that humanity was able to solve many very complex tasks in the past, and it took typically around 100 years. That is flight of heavy than air objects,
That seems to be false. Leonardo da Vinci had drafts of flying machines and it took a lot longer than 100 years to get actual flight.
That is why I use wording “typically around” to show that I meant medium time of large dedicated efforts. Leonardo’s work was not continued by other scientists of 16 century so it was not part of large dedicated effort. It seems that other creators of flying machines tried to invent them from scratch but not based on results of Leonardo.
Even in 19 century collaboration between aviation enthusiasts was very small. Probably they learned from failed attempts of others—like ups, flying wings does not work, lets try rotating wings. if they collaborate more effectively, they could come to the working design quicker.
I think that it is possible to make your argument even stronger: it took hundred thousand years to go from stone age to bronze age.
But is clear that “total intelligence” of humanity is different on any stage of its development, and when I spoke about hundred years, I thought of “total intelligence” of humanity on the level of 20 century.
Anyway in case of AI it is an analogy, and may not work. The AI problem could be extremely complex and even unsolvable, but we could not bet on it if we are going to be well prepared.
That seems to be false. Leonardo da Vinci had drafts of flying machines and it took a lot longer than 100 years to get actual flight.
That is why I use wording “typically around” to show that I meant medium time of large dedicated efforts. Leonardo’s work was not continued by other scientists of 16 century so it was not part of large dedicated effort. It seems that other creators of flying machines tried to invent them from scratch but not based on results of Leonardo.
Even in 19 century collaboration between aviation enthusiasts was very small. Probably they learned from failed attempts of others—like ups, flying wings does not work, lets try rotating wings. if they collaborate more effectively, they could come to the working design quicker.
Then take the project of eternal life. A lot of corporating alchimists worked on it for thousands of years.
I think that it is possible to make your argument even stronger: it took hundred thousand years to go from stone age to bronze age.
But is clear that “total intelligence” of humanity is different on any stage of its development, and when I spoke about hundred years, I thought of “total intelligence” of humanity on the level of 20 century.
Anyway in case of AI it is an analogy, and may not work. The AI problem could be extremely complex and even unsolvable, but we could not bet on it if we are going to be well prepared.
Could this medium time even be exponential regarding the whole human evolution?