I think this grossly underestimates the second tier connectivity. In the hypothetical society, this person has 9900 indirect associates (such as the great uncle of a friend). If a random 0.2% of the population were to die from a disease, then there would not be just one indirect associate that dies, there would be around 20 of them.
In a small isolated community many of these would overlap, maybe even just in one person in extreme cases, but then it still wouldn’t be just one “friends’ great uncle” who died, it would also be “my boss’s friend” and “my co-worker’s grandfather” and “my cousin’s neighbour” and so on for a dozen more second-layer relationships.
But no, the real tragedy is that in modern society older people—those most likely to die or suffer severe effects of COVID—generally have much weaker associations with the population who post most loudly on the Internet. Many people over 70 are not friends with anyone under 50, are not co-workers with anyone, not playing any sport played by younger people, and often not even in regular contact with more than a few members of their younger family. There are still just as many people dying, but from the point of view of some of the public discourse, very few that you would care about.
In practice, your second-tier connectivity has a lot of overlaps so it’s not actually the square of the size of your Dunbar-sized immediate group. Additionally, by definition these are people that you don’t have direct relationships with, so your knowledge of what’s going on with them may be hazy.
Anecdotally, I know about 30 people who have gotten COVID, which includes one hospitalization and no deaths: a statistically average outcome. In my second-tier contacts I know… 4 or 5 deaths? I’m unsure, because the only way I can know about this at all is by hearing “[Person I don’t know] from [social activity I don’t go to] died of COVID”, and this makes it easy to never hear about it and to forget.
The number of connection paths to the person who died, and therefore the average number of connections via which you find out about their deaths, is basically just proportional to the square regardless of overlaps. In a “small world” you might find out about the same person’s death more than once via these connections, but the number of people you directly associate with who have someone close to them die is the same as in a “large world” so I don’t think degree of overlap matters much.
I do agree that the impact of deaths decreases with the indirectness of the connections. I was only commenting on the numbers in the example.
Also there is a lot of confirmation bias. I don’t remember hearing any friends telling me someone they know died of Covid, but I have heard one say someone they know died right after getting the vaccine and another complaining about what they think are symptoms of vaccination and say their PCP has not been treating them seriously.
I bet there have been covid deaths of a friend of a friend, but that is a lot less notable to them or me compared to a potential death due to the vaccine. I wish I had recorded every covid/vax death/problem so I wasn’t just relying on my faulty memory.
I think this grossly underestimates the second tier connectivity. In the hypothetical society, this person has 9900 indirect associates (such as the great uncle of a friend). If a random 0.2% of the population were to die from a disease, then there would not be just one indirect associate that dies, there would be around 20 of them.
In a small isolated community many of these would overlap, maybe even just in one person in extreme cases, but then it still wouldn’t be just one “friends’ great uncle” who died, it would also be “my boss’s friend” and “my co-worker’s grandfather” and “my cousin’s neighbour” and so on for a dozen more second-layer relationships.
But no, the real tragedy is that in modern society older people—those most likely to die or suffer severe effects of COVID—generally have much weaker associations with the population who post most loudly on the Internet. Many people over 70 are not friends with anyone under 50, are not co-workers with anyone, not playing any sport played by younger people, and often not even in regular contact with more than a few members of their younger family. There are still just as many people dying, but from the point of view of some of the public discourse, very few that you would care about.
In practice, your second-tier connectivity has a lot of overlaps so it’s not actually the square of the size of your Dunbar-sized immediate group. Additionally, by definition these are people that you don’t have direct relationships with, so your knowledge of what’s going on with them may be hazy.
Anecdotally, I know about 30 people who have gotten COVID, which includes one hospitalization and no deaths: a statistically average outcome. In my second-tier contacts I know… 4 or 5 deaths? I’m unsure, because the only way I can know about this at all is by hearing “[Person I don’t know] from [social activity I don’t go to] died of COVID”, and this makes it easy to never hear about it and to forget.
The number of connection paths to the person who died, and therefore the average number of connections via which you find out about their deaths, is basically just proportional to the square regardless of overlaps. In a “small world” you might find out about the same person’s death more than once via these connections, but the number of people you directly associate with who have someone close to them die is the same as in a “large world” so I don’t think degree of overlap matters much.
I do agree that the impact of deaths decreases with the indirectness of the connections. I was only commenting on the numbers in the example.
Also there is a lot of confirmation bias. I don’t remember hearing any friends telling me someone they know died of Covid, but I have heard one say someone they know died right after getting the vaccine and another complaining about what they think are symptoms of vaccination and say their PCP has not been treating them seriously.
I bet there have been covid deaths of a friend of a friend, but that is a lot less notable to them or me compared to a potential death due to the vaccine. I wish I had recorded every covid/vax death/problem so I wasn’t just relying on my faulty memory.