If you live in a world where you have access to magic if and only if you believe that you can use magic, you should believe you can do magic. You cant do that unless decision theory comes before epistemics.
I think decision theory is for situations where the world judges you based on your decision. (We used to call such situations “fair”.) If the world can also judge your internal state, then no decision theory can be optimal, because the world can just punish you for using it.
Do you have any other argument why decision theory should come before epistemics?
I think that spurious counterfactuals come from having a proof of what you do before deciding what you do, (where “before” is in some weird logical time thing)
I think that the justification for having particular epistemics should come from decision/utility theory, like with the complete class theorems.
I think the correct response to Sleeping Beauty is to taboo “belief” and talk about what gambles you should take.
I think that we have to at some point think about how to think about what to think about, which requires the decision system influencing the epistemics.
#2 and #3 just sound like UDT to me, but #1 and #4 are strong. Thank you! I agree that deciding which theorems to prove next is a great use of decision theory, and would love to see people do more with that idea.
I think decision theory is for situations where the world judges you based on your decision. (We used to call such situations “fair”.) If the world can also judge your internal state, then no decision theory can be optimal, because the world can just punish you for using it.
Do you have any other argument why decision theory should come before epistemics?
I think that spurious counterfactuals come from having a proof of what you do before deciding what you do, (where “before” is in some weird logical time thing)
I think that the justification for having particular epistemics should come from decision/utility theory, like with the complete class theorems.
I think the correct response to Sleeping Beauty is to taboo “belief” and talk about what gambles you should take.
I think that we have to at some point think about how to think about what to think about, which requires the decision system influencing the epistemics.
#2 and #3 just sound like UDT to me, but #1 and #4 are strong. Thank you! I agree that deciding which theorems to prove next is a great use of decision theory, and would love to see people do more with that idea.
“I think that we have to at some point think about how to think about what to think about”
My inner Eliezer is screaming at me about ultrafinite recursion.