Thank you for a really great explanation, I understand now.
Now, how sure are you that the same isn’t true in the happiness case? (For instance, some researcher says that beautiful people aren’t happier. But is this true in an important and practical way, or is it false in that way and only true in an irrelevant and useless way? And if you claim the former—given the state of social science, how certain are you?)
I would say that I feel about 90% sure that it isn’t true in the happiness case. I am not particularly familiar with the research, but in general, we have a ton of blind spots and biases that are harmful in a practical, real world sort of sense, and so a claim that we also have one in the context of happiness seems very plausible. It also seems plausible because of the evopsych reasoning. And most of all, reputable scientists seem to be warning us about the pitfalls of thinking we know what we like. If they were just making an academic point that we have these blind spots, but these blind spots aren’t actually relevant to everyday people and everyday life, I wouldn’t expect there to be bestselling books about it like Stumbling on Happiness.
But, it is definitely possible that I am just misinterpreting and misunderstanding things. If I am—if we aren’t actually getting something wrong about happiness that is important in a practical sense—then that is very important. So that I can update my beliefs, and so that I can either edit or delete this post.
Blind spots and biases can be harmful to your goals without being harmful to your reproductive fitness. Being wrong about which future situations will make you (permanently) happier is an excellent example of such a blind spot.
Thank you for a really great explanation, I understand now.
I would say that I feel about 90% sure that it isn’t true in the happiness case. I am not particularly familiar with the research, but in general, we have a ton of blind spots and biases that are harmful in a practical, real world sort of sense, and so a claim that we also have one in the context of happiness seems very plausible. It also seems plausible because of the evopsych reasoning. And most of all, reputable scientists seem to be warning us about the pitfalls of thinking we know what we like. If they were just making an academic point that we have these blind spots, but these blind spots aren’t actually relevant to everyday people and everyday life, I wouldn’t expect there to be bestselling books about it like Stumbling on Happiness.
But, it is definitely possible that I am just misinterpreting and misunderstanding things. If I am—if we aren’t actually getting something wrong about happiness that is important in a practical sense—then that is very important. So that I can update my beliefs, and so that I can either edit or delete this post.
..but which don’t get selected out, for some reason.
Blind spots and biases can be harmful to your goals without being harmful to your reproductive fitness. Being wrong about which future situations will make you (permanently) happier is an excellent example of such a blind spot.