Oof, rookie mistake. I retract the claim that averaging log odds is ‘the correct thing to do’ in this case
Still—unless I’m wrong again—the average log odds would converge to the correct result in the limit of many forecasters, and the average probabilities wouldn’t? Making the post title bad advice in such a case?
Oof, rookie mistake. I retract the claim that averaging log odds is ‘the correct thing to do’ in this case
Still—unless I’m wrong again—the average log odds would converge to the correct result in the limit of many forecasters, and the average probabilities wouldn’t? Making the post title bad advice in such a case?
(Though median forecast would do just fine)