There is an important systematic bias you only tangentially mention in your analysis. Super-smart people (more generally, very successful people) don’t feel they have to prove themselves all the time. (Especially if they are tenured. :) ) Many of them like to talk before they think. There are very smart people around them who quickly spot the obvious mistakes and laboriously complete the half-baked ideas. It is just more economic this way.
There is an important systematic bias you only tangentially mention in your analysis. Super-smart people (more generally, very successful people) don’t feel they have to prove themselves all the time. (Especially if they are tenured. :) ) Many of them like to talk before they think. There are very smart people around them who quickly spot the obvious mistakes and laboriously complete the half-baked ideas. It is just more economic this way.