The first question that came to mind when I heard about this story was ‘what’s the base rate?’. I didn’t investigate further but a quick mental estimate made me doubt that this represented a statistically significant increase above the base rate. It’s disappointing yet unsurprising that few if any media reports even consider this point.
The first question that came to mind when I heard about this story was ‘what’s the base rate?’. I didn’t investigate further but a quick mental estimate made me doubt that this represented a statistically significant increase above the base rate. It’s disappointing yet unsurprising that few if any media reports even consider this point.