Relatedly, do you consider [function approximators for basically everything becoming better with time] to also fail to be a good predictor of AGI timelines for the same reasons that compute-based estimates fail?
Obviously yes, unless you can take the metrics on which your graphs show steady progress and really actually locate AGI on them instead of just tossing out a shot-in-the-dark biological analogy to locate AGI on them.
Obviously yes, unless you can take the metrics on which your graphs show steady progress and really actually locate AGI on them instead of just tossing out a shot-in-the-dark biological analogy to locate AGI on them.