anyway, another place to try your hand at calibration:
Humbali: No. You’re expressing absolute certainty in your underlying epistemology and your entire probability distribution
no he isn’t, why?
Humbali is asking for Eliezer to double count evidence. Consilience is hard if you don’t do your homework on provenance of heuristic and not just naively counting up outputs who themselves also didn’t do their homework.
Or in other words: “Do not cite the deep evidence to me, I was there when it was written”
And another place to take a whack at:
I’m not sure how to lead you into the place where you can dismiss that thought with confidence.
The particular cited example of statusy aliens seems like extreme hypothesis privileging, which often arises from reference class tennis.
Spoiler tags are borked the way I’m using them.
anyway, another place to try your hand at calibration:
Humbali: No. You’re expressing absolute certainty in your underlying epistemology and your entire probability distribution
no he isn’t, why?
Humbali is asking for Eliezer to double count evidence. Consilience is hard if you don’t do your homework on provenance of heuristic and not just naively counting up outputs who themselves also didn’t do their homework.
Or in other words: “Do not cite the deep evidence to me, I was there when it was written”
And another place to take a whack at:
The particular cited example of statusy aliens seems like extreme hypothesis privileging, which often arises from reference class tennis.