(This post was partly written as a follow-up to Eliezer’s conversations with Paul and Ajeya, so I’ve inserted it into the conversations sequence.)
It does fit well there, but I think it was more inspired by the person I met who thought I was being way too arrogant by not updating in the direction of OpenPhil’s timeline estimates to the extent I was uncertain.
(This post was partly written as a follow-up to Eliezer’s conversations with Paul and Ajeya, so I’ve inserted it into the conversations sequence.)
It does fit well there, but I think it was more inspired by the person I met who thought I was being way too arrogant by not updating in the direction of OpenPhil’s timeline estimates to the extent I was uncertain.