I commend this comment and concur with the importance of hardware, the straw-manning of Moravec, etc.
However I do think that EY had a few valid criticisms of Ajeya’s model in particular—it ends up smearing probability mass over many anchors or sub-models, most of which are arguably poorly grounded in deep engineering knowledge. And yes you can use it to create your own model, but most people won’t do that and are just looking at the default median conclusion.
Moore’s Law is petering out as we run up against the constraints of physics for practical irreversible computers, but the brain is also—at best—already at those same limits. So that should substantially reduce uncertainty concerning the hardware side (hardware parity now/soon), and thus place most of the uncertainty around software/algorithm iteration progress. The important algorithmic advances tend to change asymptotic scaling curvature rather than progress linearly, and really all the key uncertainty is over that—which I think is what EY is gesturing at, and rightly so.
I commend this comment and concur with the importance of hardware, the straw-manning of Moravec, etc.
However I do think that EY had a few valid criticisms of Ajeya’s model in particular—it ends up smearing probability mass over many anchors or sub-models, most of which are arguably poorly grounded in deep engineering knowledge. And yes you can use it to create your own model, but most people won’t do that and are just looking at the default median conclusion.
Moore’s Law is petering out as we run up against the constraints of physics for practical irreversible computers, but the brain is also—at best—already at those same limits. So that should substantially reduce uncertainty concerning the hardware side (hardware parity now/soon), and thus place most of the uncertainty around software/algorithm iteration progress. The important algorithmic advances tend to change asymptotic scaling curvature rather than progress linearly, and really all the key uncertainty is over that—which I think is what EY is gesturing at, and rightly so.