We already know how much compute we have, so we don’t need Moravec’s projections for this? If Yudkowsky described Moravec’s analysis correctly, then Moravec’s threshold was crossed in 2008. Or, by “other extrapolations” you mean other estimates of human brain compute? Cotra’s analysis is much more recent and IIUC she puts the “lifetime anchor” (a more conservative approach than Moravec’s) at about one order of magnitude above the biggest models currently used.
Now, the seeds take time to sprout, but according to Mark’s model this time is quite short. So, it seems like this line of reasoning produces a timeline significantly shorter than the Plattian 30 years.
We already know how much compute we have, so we don’t need Moravec’s projections for this? If Yudkowsky described Moravec’s analysis correctly, then Moravec’s threshold was crossed in 2008. Or, by “other extrapolations” you mean other estimates of human brain compute? Cotra’s analysis is much more recent and IIUC she puts the “lifetime anchor” (a more conservative approach than Moravec’s) at about one order of magnitude above the biggest models currently used.
Now, the seeds take time to sprout, but according to Mark’s model this time is quite short. So, it seems like this line of reasoning produces a timeline significantly shorter than the Plattian 30 years.