Curated. Many times over the years I’ve seen analogies from biology used to produce estimates about AI timelines. This is the most thoroughly-argued case I’ve seen against them. While I believe some find the format uncomfortable, I’m personally glad to see Eliezer expressing his beliefs as he feels them, and think this is worth reading for anyone interested in predicting how AI will play out in coming years.
For those short on time, I recommend this summary by Grant Demaree.
Curated. Many times over the years I’ve seen analogies from biology used to produce estimates about AI timelines. This is the most thoroughly-argued case I’ve seen against them. While I believe some find the format uncomfortable, I’m personally glad to see Eliezer expressing his beliefs as he feels them, and think this is worth reading for anyone interested in predicting how AI will play out in coming years.
For those short on time, I recommend this summary by Grant Demaree.