Conditional prediction markets could resolve to the available options weighted by calibration on similar subjects of the holders in unconditional markets, rather than N/A. Such markets might end up looking like predicting what well-calibrated people will pick, or following on after they bet (implying not expecting significant well-calibrated disagreement). Well-calibrated people could then expect to earn a profit by betting in conditional markets if they bet closer to the consensus than the market does, partly weighted in their favor for being better calibrated relative to the whole market.
Conditional prediction markets could resolve to the available options weighted by calibration on similar subjects of the holders in unconditional markets, rather than N/A. Such markets might end up looking like predicting what well-calibrated people will pick, or following on after they bet (implying not expecting significant well-calibrated disagreement). Well-calibrated people could then expect to earn a profit by betting in conditional markets if they bet closer to the consensus than the market does, partly weighted in their favor for being better calibrated relative to the whole market.