Great points! There are things about the recent invasion of Ukraine that increase the chances of nuclear war. And as you point out, there are also things about the invasion that decrease the chances of nuclear war. My sense is that the former outweigh the latter, but it’s not the sort of thing that seems immediately clear and obvious. It’s difficult to enumerate and weigh all of the factors.
One thing you didn’t point out for the latter category is the possibility that it’d lead to society in general, or even just specific sub-groups taking existential risks more seriously.
Previously I saw the situation as all bad, and the question is just how bad exactly it is. I hadn’t had the thought that there are some benefits to it as well. Realizing that is nice, so I’m glad you brought it up.
Great points! There are things about the recent invasion of Ukraine that increase the chances of nuclear war. And as you point out, there are also things about the invasion that decrease the chances of nuclear war. My sense is that the former outweigh the latter, but it’s not the sort of thing that seems immediately clear and obvious. It’s difficult to enumerate and weigh all of the factors.
One thing you didn’t point out for the latter category is the possibility that it’d lead to society in general, or even just specific sub-groups taking existential risks more seriously.
Previously I saw the situation as all bad, and the question is just how bad exactly it is. I hadn’t had the thought that there are some benefits to it as well. Realizing that is nice, so I’m glad you brought it up.