How many people raised their hands when Eliezer asked about the probability estimate? When I was watching the video I gave a probability estimate of 65%, and I’m genuinely shocked that “not many” people thought he had over a 55% chance. This is Eliezer we’re talking about.............
He has been trying to do it for years and failed. The first time I read his attempts at doing that, years ago, I also assigned a high probability of success. Then 2 years passed and he hadn’t done it, then another 2 years..
You have to adjust your estimates based on your observations.
How many people raised their hands when Eliezer asked about the probability estimate? When I was watching the video I gave a probability estimate of 65%, and I’m genuinely shocked that “not many” people thought he had over a 55% chance. This is Eliezer we’re talking about.............
He has been trying to do it for years and failed. The first time I read his attempts at doing that, years ago, I also assigned a high probability of success. Then 2 years passed and he hadn’t done it, then another 2 years..
You have to adjust your estimates based on your observations.