See my response to Daniel (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/auGYErf5QqiTihTsJ/what-indicators-should-we-watch-to-disambiguate-agi?commentId=WRJMsp2bZCBp5egvr). In brief: I won’t defend my vague characterization of “breakthroughs” nor my handwavy estimates of how how many are needed to reach AGI, how often they occur, and how the rate of breakthroughs might evolve. I would love to see someone attempt a more rigorous analysis along these lines (I don’t feel particularly qualified to do so). I wouldn’t expect that to result in a precise figure for the arrival of AGI, but I would hope for it to add to the conversation.
See my response to Daniel (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/auGYErf5QqiTihTsJ/what-indicators-should-we-watch-to-disambiguate-agi?commentId=WRJMsp2bZCBp5egvr). In brief: I won’t defend my vague characterization of “breakthroughs” nor my handwavy estimates of how how many are needed to reach AGI, how often they occur, and how the rate of breakthroughs might evolve. I would love to see someone attempt a more rigorous analysis along these lines (I don’t feel particularly qualified to do so). I wouldn’t expect that to result in a precise figure for the arrival of AGI, but I would hope for it to add to the conversation.