I predict that performing the experiment will result in improved productivity for the ‘control’ group, as compared to historical trends. I’m indecisive about the experimental days versus the control days.
Two weeks ago, I would have said 80%. I think that it is about four times as likely that you would report supporting results after two weeks, given that you were getting supporting results, than that you would report no experimental effect after only two weeks, given that the data did not support that prediction.
I predict that performing the experiment will result in improved productivity for the ‘control’ group, as compared to historical trends. I’m indecisive about the experimental days versus the control days.
With what probability?
Two weeks ago, I would have said 80%. I think that it is about four times as likely that you would report supporting results after two weeks, given that you were getting supporting results, than that you would report no experimental effect after only two weeks, given that the data did not support that prediction.
So now its 4:1 * 4:1 or 16:1, or about 95%