You might be right—and whether the per-dollar gains were higher or lower than expected would be interesting to know—but I just don’t have any good information on this! If I’d thought of the possibility, I would have added it in Footnote 23 as another speculation, but I don’t think what I said is misleading or wrong.
For what it’s worth, in a one year review from Jacob Steinhardt, increased investment isn’t mentioned as an explanation for why the forecasts undershot.
You might be right—and whether the per-dollar gains were higher or lower than expected would be interesting to know—but I just don’t have any good information on this! If I’d thought of the possibility, I would have added it in Footnote 23 as another speculation, but I don’t think what I said is misleading or wrong.
For what it’s worth, in a one year review from Jacob Steinhardt, increased investment isn’t mentioned as an explanation for why the forecasts undershot.