This part is the one that seems the most different from my own probabilities:
AI going FOOM being an x-risk: 5%
So, do you think the default case is a friendly AI? Or at least innocuous AI? Or that friendly AI is easy enough so that whoever first makes a fooming AI will get the friendliness part right with no influence from the SIAI?
No, I do not believe that the default case is friendly AI. But I believe that AI going FOOM is, if possible at all, very hard to accomplish. Surely everyone agrees here. But at the moment I do not share the opinion that friendliness, that is to implement scope boundaries, is a very likely failure mode. I see it this way, if one can figure out how to create an AGI that FOOM’s (no I do not think AGI implies FOOM) then you have a thorough comprehension of intelligence and its associated risks. I just don’t see that a group of researchers (I don’t believe a mere group is enough anyway) will be smart enough to create an AGI that does FOOM but somehow fail to limit its scope. Please consider reading this comment where I cover this topic in more detail. That is why I believe that only 5% of all AI’s going FOOM will be an existential risk to all of humanity. That is my current estimation, I’ll of course update on new evidence (e.g. arguments).
This part is the one that seems the most different from my own probabilities:
So, do you think the default case is a friendly AI? Or at least innocuous AI? Or that friendly AI is easy enough so that whoever first makes a fooming AI will get the friendliness part right with no influence from the SIAI?
No, I do not believe that the default case is friendly AI. But I believe that AI going FOOM is, if possible at all, very hard to accomplish. Surely everyone agrees here. But at the moment I do not share the opinion that friendliness, that is to implement scope boundaries, is a very likely failure mode. I see it this way, if one can figure out how to create an AGI that FOOM’s (no I do not think AGI implies FOOM) then you have a thorough comprehension of intelligence and its associated risks. I just don’t see that a group of researchers (I don’t believe a mere group is enough anyway) will be smart enough to create an AGI that does FOOM but somehow fail to limit its scope. Please consider reading this comment where I cover this topic in more detail. That is why I believe that only 5% of all AI’s going FOOM will be an existential risk to all of humanity. That is my current estimation, I’ll of course update on new evidence (e.g. arguments).