If you’re going to do this sort of explicit decomposition at all, it’s probably also worth thinking explicitly about the expected value of a donation. That is: how much does your .0001 estimate of SIAI’s chance of preventing a humanity-destroying AI go up or down based on an N$ change in its annual revenue?
Thanks, you are right. I’d actually do a lot more but I feel I am not yet ready to tackle this topic mathematically. I only started getting into math in 2009. I asked several times for an analysis with input variables I could use to come up with my own estimations of the expected value of a donation to the SIAI. I asked people who are convinced of the SIAI to provide a decision procedure on how they were convinced. I asked them to lay it open to public inspection so people could reassess the procedure and calculations to compute their own conclusion. In response they asked me to do so myself. I do not take it amiss, they do not have to convince me. I am not able to do so yet. But while learning math I try to encourage other people to think about it.
That is: how much does your .0001 estimate of SIAI’s chance of preventing a humanity-destroying AI go up or down based on an N$ change in its annual revenue?
I feel that this deserves a direct answer. I think it is not just about money. The question would be, what would they do with it, would they actually hire experts? I will assume the best-case scenario here.
If the SIAI would be able to obtain a billion dollars I’d estimate the chance of the SIAI to prevent a FOOMing uFAI 10%.
If you’re going to do this sort of explicit decomposition at all, it’s probably also worth thinking explicitly about the expected value of a donation. That is: how much does your .0001 estimate of SIAI’s chance of preventing a humanity-destroying AI go up or down based on an N$ change in its annual revenue?
Thanks, you are right. I’d actually do a lot more but I feel I am not yet ready to tackle this topic mathematically. I only started getting into math in 2009. I asked several times for an analysis with input variables I could use to come up with my own estimations of the expected value of a donation to the SIAI. I asked people who are convinced of the SIAI to provide a decision procedure on how they were convinced. I asked them to lay it open to public inspection so people could reassess the procedure and calculations to compute their own conclusion. In response they asked me to do so myself. I do not take it amiss, they do not have to convince me. I am not able to do so yet. But while learning math I try to encourage other people to think about it.
I feel that this deserves a direct answer. I think it is not just about money. The question would be, what would they do with it, would they actually hire experts? I will assume the best-case scenario here.
If the SIAI would be able to obtain a billion dollars I’d estimate the chance of the SIAI to prevent a FOOMing uFAI 10%.