I’m not sure it is all clear that Macholand not putting down the rebellion is the suboptimal course? As you said, making themselves appear strong and sovereign may have important consequences to international relations, ongoing diplomatic relations with other powers, etc. This wasn’t adequately justified, and I think the argument strongly hinges on it. As soon as you said “maybe the international community doesn’t really care what Macholand does here” really changed my assessment of the situation. No effective bully bothers to deal with a troublemaker that “is not worth the effort.”
You’re right. Making the decision to put down the rebellion might indeed be the right one. My goal is not to say what the correct decision is, but instead to point out that making the decision purely on the semiotics of the situation is fallacious.
In other words, it is at least plausible that the cost of putting down the rebellion is more than the benefit of increased respect in international diplomacy. The right way to make the judgement is to weigh these costs against the benefits. But often, people and institutions and countries make decisions based purely on the symbolic meaning of their actions without explicitly accounting for whether these symbolic acts have consequential backing.
Oh it wasn’t a criticism of the underlying idea, just feedback for you that the example wasn’t being effective for its intended illustrative purpose. And thank you for the “semiotic fallacy” idea, I’ve already incorporated it into my lexicon.
I’m not sure it is all clear that Macholand not putting down the rebellion is the suboptimal course? As you said, making themselves appear strong and sovereign may have important consequences to international relations, ongoing diplomatic relations with other powers, etc. This wasn’t adequately justified, and I think the argument strongly hinges on it. As soon as you said “maybe the international community doesn’t really care what Macholand does here” really changed my assessment of the situation. No effective bully bothers to deal with a troublemaker that “is not worth the effort.”
You’re right. Making the decision to put down the rebellion might indeed be the right one. My goal is not to say what the correct decision is, but instead to point out that making the decision purely on the semiotics of the situation is fallacious.
In other words, it is at least plausible that the cost of putting down the rebellion is more than the benefit of increased respect in international diplomacy. The right way to make the judgement is to weigh these costs against the benefits. But often, people and institutions and countries make decisions based purely on the symbolic meaning of their actions without explicitly accounting for whether these symbolic acts have consequential backing.
Oh it wasn’t a criticism of the underlying idea, just feedback for you that the example wasn’t being effective for its intended illustrative purpose. And thank you for the “semiotic fallacy” idea, I’ve already incorporated it into my lexicon.