I don’t think so. It would require more hardware on the phones because they don’t normally have the range. But the existing satellite networks definitely have the capability for this. Since this would be for something like expensive, rare use, the bandwith use would be minimal. One could use the Iridium satellite network easily.
However, I’m not at all sure that this is a serious existential risk threat except in so far as any general stability increase is likely to reduce existential risk.
Practically, this is unlikely to occur. People are unlikely to request this sort of thing (people don’t think generally about low risk situations) although it might be possible to spin it in the context of the recent unrest in the Middle East. But most people aren’t going to want a phone feature that only is going to be used if absolutely everything is going to shit. And without enough people interested in it, there’s now way the cell phone manufacturers are going to bother.
although it might be possible to spin it in the context of the recent unrest in the Middle East
Thinking about recent unrest in the Middle East seems to make the case considerably weaker—here are a handful of cases where things went pretty badly, but there was nothing even resembling a complete blackout of information.
There was a serious attempt at disrupting communications in Libya, which included both cutting international phone connections and active jamming of television signals. The cell phone network was offline for a month until rebels rewired it. While information flow was not completely cut off, because some people had satellite internet connectivity, it was greatly reduced, and the reduction was not in the volume of communication per person but in the number of people able to communicate. And we can’t count on people having satellite dishes, because they’re hard to hide, and banned in Iran.
I don’t think so. It would require more hardware on the phones because they don’t normally have the range. But the existing satellite networks definitely have the capability for this. Since this would be for something like expensive, rare use, the bandwith use would be minimal. One could use the Iridium satellite network easily.
I think it’s either/or—upgrade phone hardware or upgrade the satellites and just the software on the phones. A satellite can see weaker signals by using a more strongly directed antenna. It would require heavier satellites and have narrower coverage that way, but it would work. Possibly very narrow—I don’t have the relevant numbers—but if phones default to repeating their message for long enough then one satellite can still cover a large area by scanning it in a pattern.
If we can spinn it somehow to get goverments to compeet for having the best such coverage that might be a good way to get around the incentive problems.
Does the cell phone have to send it all the way to the satellite, or can it send to the tower, which then sends to the satellite?
It wouldn’t work if the tower is down, but it would probably work in genocide cases. Until they start jamming signals, at least. The towers should be able to detect that as well.
Does the cell phone have to send it all the way to the satellite, or can it send to the tower, which then sends to the satellite?
If one has towers that are functional then this really doesn’t seem useful. The most common uses would be when out of range of towers or when the towers are controlled by the government (such as in Libya).
I don’t think so. It would require more hardware on the phones because they don’t normally have the range. But the existing satellite networks definitely have the capability for this. Since this would be for something like expensive, rare use, the bandwith use would be minimal. One could use the Iridium satellite network easily.
However, I’m not at all sure that this is a serious existential risk threat except in so far as any general stability increase is likely to reduce existential risk.
Practically, this is unlikely to occur. People are unlikely to request this sort of thing (people don’t think generally about low risk situations) although it might be possible to spin it in the context of the recent unrest in the Middle East. But most people aren’t going to want a phone feature that only is going to be used if absolutely everything is going to shit. And without enough people interested in it, there’s now way the cell phone manufacturers are going to bother.
Thinking about recent unrest in the Middle East seems to make the case considerably weaker—here are a handful of cases where things went pretty badly, but there was nothing even resembling a complete blackout of information.
Is there something I am missing?
There was a serious attempt at disrupting communications in Libya, which included both cutting international phone connections and active jamming of television signals. The cell phone network was offline for a month until rebels rewired it. While information flow was not completely cut off, because some people had satellite internet connectivity, it was greatly reduced, and the reduction was not in the volume of communication per person but in the number of people able to communicate. And we can’t count on people having satellite dishes, because they’re hard to hide, and banned in Iran.
I think it’s either/or—upgrade phone hardware or upgrade the satellites and just the software on the phones. A satellite can see weaker signals by using a more strongly directed antenna. It would require heavier satellites and have narrower coverage that way, but it would work. Possibly very narrow—I don’t have the relevant numbers—but if phones default to repeating their message for long enough then one satellite can still cover a large area by scanning it in a pattern.
If we can spinn it somehow to get goverments to compeet for having the best such coverage that might be a good way to get around the incentive problems.
Does the cell phone have to send it all the way to the satellite, or can it send to the tower, which then sends to the satellite?
It wouldn’t work if the tower is down, but it would probably work in genocide cases. Until they start jamming signals, at least. The towers should be able to detect that as well.
If one has towers that are functional then this really doesn’t seem useful. The most common uses would be when out of range of towers or when the towers are controlled by the government (such as in Libya).