Are all those people you are talking about outside of the rationality community?
Yep. As far as I know, but I’d be pretty surprised if any of them were here.
We have people we pay to do contact tracing.
Would you be willing to point at more details about this? I recall seeing a lot about how we weren’t doing adequate contact tracing, but not much on how we have been.
From a conversation I had with a doctor, it seems that our medical system generally does a lot fewer autopsies than we did 20 years ago.
Mmm. Good to know.
Although that basically means the problem with data collection I was describing is actually a step farther up the chain. That cremation isn’t where the data are getting destroyed. If they’re not even bothering to verify the causes of death via autopsies and there was (is?) financial incentive to conclude “Covid”… well, I believe in incentive landscapes.
The labs that do PCR testing retest some of the positive tests with variant-specific tests. Different countries have different policies about that.
Ah. And some people go through the different countries’ policies and numbers and do some data crunching to extrapolate something? Okay. Who are these data crunchers then? All this is an opaque screen from where I’m standing. I just see final numbers asserted in public.
(Thank you, by the way. Gratitude for the energy you’ve put into answering this.)
I think they are basically doing a COVID-19 test and then making the claim about the cause of death based on clinical history.
From my doctor friend, the main concern was that not doing the autopsies leads to not having good statistical data about which organs get damaged in patients dying with COVID and how that differs with new varients. That would be traditionally information that’s useful for doctors who want to prevent patients from dying but it’s not structured the way the modern EBM thinking about treatment goes.
Ah. And some people go through the different countries’ policies and numbers and do some data crunching to extrapolate something?
There’s a reason Zvi was focusing on Denmark’s data. They have the best data.
At this point in time, I think most countries are doing samples. You don’t need to test everyone to have statistically significant data.
Would you be willing to point at more details about this? I recall seeing a lot about how we weren’t doing adequate contact tracing, but not much on how we have been.
Contact tracing is often getting to people to late and it’s not done in an amount that you would need to track all the cases but those contact tracers are still around. (but I haven’t looked into detail into the system; it’s not something like the autopsy topics that I discussed with a doctor who has a good understanding of what’s happening)
Yep. As far as I know, but I’d be pretty surprised if any of them were here.
Would you be willing to point at more details about this? I recall seeing a lot about how we weren’t doing adequate contact tracing, but not much on how we have been.
Mmm. Good to know.
Although that basically means the problem with data collection I was describing is actually a step farther up the chain. That cremation isn’t where the data are getting destroyed. If they’re not even bothering to verify the causes of death via autopsies and there was (is?) financial incentive to conclude “Covid”… well, I believe in incentive landscapes.
Ah. And some people go through the different countries’ policies and numbers and do some data crunching to extrapolate something? Okay. Who are these data crunchers then? All this is an opaque screen from where I’m standing. I just see final numbers asserted in public.
(Thank you, by the way. Gratitude for the energy you’ve put into answering this.)
I think they are basically doing a COVID-19 test and then making the claim about the cause of death based on clinical history.
From my doctor friend, the main concern was that not doing the autopsies leads to not having good statistical data about which organs get damaged in patients dying with COVID and how that differs with new varients. That would be traditionally information that’s useful for doctors who want to prevent patients from dying but it’s not structured the way the modern EBM thinking about treatment goes.
There’s a reason Zvi was focusing on Denmark’s data. They have the best data.
At this point in time, I think most countries are doing samples. You don’t need to test everyone to have statistically significant data.
Contact tracing is often getting to people to late and it’s not done in an amount that you would need to track all the cases but those contact tracers are still around. (but I haven’t looked into detail into the system; it’s not something like the autopsy topics that I discussed with a doctor who has a good understanding of what’s happening)