I’m afraid I can’t really give you an answer at the level of precision you’re asking for; I’m really not well calibrated for extimating extremely low probabilities. The best I can give you is “small enough as to be near indistinguishable from zero”.
And I’m not entirely sure where I should put the upper bound of that category, either.
Well, let’s approach it from the other direction, then. Would you say that the chance that I’ve experienced at least one perception not caused by processing signals from a distal stimulus that conforms in all significant ways to the perception within the last 12 months is indistinguishable from zero? Indistinguishable from one? Somewhere in between?
There are substances that, when ingested or perhaps inhaled, will trigger hallucinations.
There are certain mental conditions which may trigger hallucinations.
Dreams might also count, given the wording you’ve used.
If I assume that you haven’t ingested any hallucinogens, knowingly or not; and that you are mentally healthy, and not counting dreams, then I’d say it falls into the “small enough as to be near indistinguishable from zero” category. (If you have ingested hallucinogens, the probability shoots up; potentially quite a lot).
Ah. I see.
I’m afraid I can’t really give you an answer at the level of precision you’re asking for; I’m really not well calibrated for extimating extremely low probabilities. The best I can give you is “small enough as to be near indistinguishable from zero”.
And I’m not entirely sure where I should put the upper bound of that category, either.
Well, let’s approach it from the other direction, then. Would you say that the chance that I’ve experienced at least one perception not caused by processing signals from a distal stimulus that conforms in all significant ways to the perception within the last 12 months is indistinguishable from zero? Indistinguishable from one? Somewhere in between?
Hmmm. Tricky.
There are substances that, when ingested or perhaps inhaled, will trigger hallucinations.
There are certain mental conditions which may trigger hallucinations.
Dreams might also count, given the wording you’ve used.
If I assume that you haven’t ingested any hallucinogens, knowingly or not; and that you are mentally healthy, and not counting dreams, then I’d say it falls into the “small enough as to be near indistinguishable from zero” category. (If you have ingested hallucinogens, the probability shoots up; potentially quite a lot).
OK, cool… that answers the question I was trying to get answered. Thank you.