So your model is that people can make big llms, and the innovation from openAI and from open source will eventually all be in one large model. Aka “gpt 4.1”. But that each llm shop, while free of encumbrances and free to seek maximum profit, would not have the necessary concentration of money and talent in one place to develop AGI.
Instead they would simply keep making smaller delta’s to their product, something a less talented and GPU poorer crew could do, and capabilities would be stuck in a local minimum.
So you believe that either this would push back AGI several years (eventually the staff at these smaller shops would skill up from experience and as compute gets cheaper they would eventually have what 100B of compute will buy in 2024) or possibly longer if there is no smooth path of small incremental steps from gpt-4.1 to AGI.
I will add one comment to this : it’s not actually a threshold of “gpt4.1 to AGI”. Assuming you believe RSI will work, you need “a good enough seed model plus sufficient compute to train and benchmark thousands of automatically generated AGI candidates”.
Gpt4.1 plus a reinforcement learning element might be enough for the “seed AI”.
So your model is that people can make big llms, and the innovation from openAI and from open source will eventually all be in one large model. Aka “gpt 4.1”. But that each llm shop, while free of encumbrances and free to seek maximum profit, would not have the necessary concentration of money and talent in one place to develop AGI.
Instead they would simply keep making smaller delta’s to their product, something a less talented and GPU poorer crew could do, and capabilities would be stuck in a local minimum.
So you believe that either this would push back AGI several years (eventually the staff at these smaller shops would skill up from experience and as compute gets cheaper they would eventually have what 100B of compute will buy in 2024) or possibly longer if there is no smooth path of small incremental steps from gpt-4.1 to AGI.
I will add one comment to this : it’s not actually a threshold of “gpt4.1 to AGI”. Assuming you believe RSI will work, you need “a good enough seed model plus sufficient compute to train and benchmark thousands of automatically generated AGI candidates”.
Gpt4.1 plus a reinforcement learning element might be enough for the “seed AI”.
That summary sounds right, yep!
Except that. It might, but I don’t think that’s particularly likely.