I mean, I don’t really care how much e.g. Facebook AI thinks they’re racing right now. They’re not in the game at this point.
The race dynamics are not just about who’s leading. FB is 1-2 years behind (looking at LLM metrics), and it doesn’t seem like they’re getting further behind OpenAI/Anthropic with each generation, so I expect that the lag at the end will be at most a few years.
That means that if Facebook is unconstrained, the leading labs have only that much time to slow down for safety (or prepare a pivotal act) as they approach AGI before Facebook gets there with total recklessness.
If Microsoft!OpenAI lags the new leaders by less than FB (and I think that’s likely to be the case), that shortens the safety window further.
I suspect my actual crux with you is your belief (correct me if I’m misinterpreting you) that your research program will solve alignment and that it will not take much of a safety window for the leading lab to incorporate the solution, and therefore the only thing that matters is finishing the solution and getting the leading lab on board. It would be very nice if you were right, but I put a low probability on it.
The race dynamics are not just about who’s leading. FB is 1-2 years behind (looking at LLM metrics), and it doesn’t seem like they’re getting further behind OpenAI/Anthropic with each generation, so I expect that the lag at the end will be at most a few years.
That means that if Facebook is unconstrained, the leading labs have only that much time to slow down for safety (or prepare a pivotal act) as they approach AGI before Facebook gets there with total recklessness.
If Microsoft!OpenAI lags the new leaders by less than FB (and I think that’s likely to be the case), that shortens the safety window further.
I suspect my actual crux with you is your belief (correct me if I’m misinterpreting you) that your research program will solve alignment and that it will not take much of a safety window for the leading lab to incorporate the solution, and therefore the only thing that matters is finishing the solution and getting the leading lab on board. It would be very nice if you were right, but I put a low probability on it.