I think this misses one of the main outcomes I’m worried about, which is if Sam comes back as CEO and the board is replaced by less safety-motivated people. This currently seems likely (Manifold at 75% Sam returning, at time of posting).
You could see this as evidence that the board never had much power, and so them leaving doesn’t actually change anything. But it seems like they (probably) made a bunch of errors, and if they hadn’t then they would have retained influence to use to steer the org in a good direction.
(It is also still super unclear wtf is going on, maybe the board acted in a reasonable way, and can’t say for legal (??) reasons.)
You could see this as evidence that the board never had much power, and so them leaving doesn’t actually change anything.
In the world where Sam Altman comes back as CEO and the board is replaced by less safety-motivated people (which I do not currently expect on an inside view), that would indeed be my interpretation of events.
Yea, im with you on it being a false dichotomy: some people are saying that because the board lost when they tried to use their legal power, it means they never had any power to begin with, so it doesnt matter. It seems plausible they had some level of power, but it was fragile and subject to failure if used carelessly in the wrong circumstances. Like, well, most real world political power.
I’d model it as them having had the amount of power equal to their on-paper power times Sam’s probability that they can successfully wield it. Being perceived as having social power is what having social power means, after all. I doubt he’d been certain they’d lose in a conflict like this, so he would’ve been at least a bit wary of starting it, i. e. would’ve shied away from actions that the board would dislike.
Now it’s established knowledge that they have no real power, and so they truly don’t have it anymore, and so Sam is free to do whatever he wants and he at last knows it.
I think this misses one of the main outcomes I’m worried about, which is if Sam comes back as CEO and the board is replaced by less safety-motivated people. This currently seems likely (Manifold at 75% Sam returning, at time of posting).
You could see this as evidence that the board never had much power, and so them leaving doesn’t actually change anything. But it seems like they (probably) made a bunch of errors, and if they hadn’t then they would have retained influence to use to steer the org in a good direction.
(It is also still super unclear wtf is going on, maybe the board acted in a reasonable way, and can’t say for legal (??) reasons.)
In the world where Sam Altman comes back as CEO and the board is replaced by less safety-motivated people (which I do not currently expect on an inside view), that would indeed be my interpretation of events.
Time to update then 🥲
https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1727206187077370115?s=20
Yea, im with you on it being a false dichotomy: some people are saying that because the board lost when they tried to use their legal power, it means they never had any power to begin with, so it doesnt matter. It seems plausible they had some level of power, but it was fragile and subject to failure if used carelessly in the wrong circumstances. Like, well, most real world political power.
I’d model it as them having had the amount of power equal to their on-paper power times Sam’s probability that they can successfully wield it. Being perceived as having social power is what having social power means, after all. I doubt he’d been certain they’d lose in a conflict like this, so he would’ve been at least a bit wary of starting it, i. e. would’ve shied away from actions that the board would dislike.
Now it’s established knowledge that they have no real power, and so they truly don’t have it anymore, and so Sam is free to do whatever he wants and he at last knows it.