Long term pattern of prices falling with time since killed for all monsters.
Yeti are consistently the cheapest. Winter Wolfs start of as the most expensive, but as time since killed increases the Snow Serpent becomes roughly equal.
Yeti have yielded the highest profit with Snow Wolf the highest losses.
From the description it looks like the winning bid and profit should be independent. For each lot find similar lots in the past. From the ones Carver didn’t win we can estimate the probability of winning for each possible bid, and from the ones she did win we can estimate the amount of money to be made by selling it. For each lot we can then look for the bif which maximises P(Winning)*Estimated profit.
Yeti 0 days since killed. All other winning bids at 55. 56 Should win with an estimated 18 profit. Snow Serpent 2 days since killed. All other bids were at 20. 21 should win with estimated 5 profit. Snow Serpent 1 day since killed. All other bids were at 40. 41 should win with UNKNOWN profit. Winter Wolf 1 day since killed. All other bids were at 38. 39 should win with estimated −2 profit. Yeti 5 days since killed. Other bids between 30-33. 34 should win with estimated 24 profit, but there are only 4 other winners, so the risk of losing unless we bid more seem realistic, but that probably won’t offset the risk of losing if we win. Winter Wolf 1 day since killed. All other bids were at 38. 29 should win with estimated −2 profit. Snow Serpent 1 day since killed. All other bids were at 40. 41 should win with unknown profit. Snow serpent 5 days since killed. Other bids 10-16. 17 should win with estimated 10 profit, but only 6 cases where other bidders won. Winter wolf 3 days since killed. Carver won all of these by bidding between 24 and 38 average selling price was 33. Winter Wolf 7 days since killed. Other bids between 20 − 23. Bidding 24 generates an estimated 1 profit. Winter Wolf 8 days since killed. Other bids at 20-23. 24 Wins at estimated −3 profit. Snow Serpent 8 days since killed. Other bids between 12 and 17. 18 wins with an estimated profit of 9. Winter Wolf 2 days since killed. No non Carver winners. Craver bid between 27 and 41 with an average selling price of 34.
For the cases where there are no non Carver winners it seems reasonable to enter the lowest bid. There are a number of cases where the best non Carver bid is constant, so there is a realistic chance that dropping the bid will guarantee that we don’t win. Whilst there are only a few at the lowest bid it looks like increasing the bid will reduce the expected profits more than can be expected to be gained by increasing the odds of winning.
For the cases where the profit is unknown. Looking at the other data the selling price only seems to drop by a few sp per day. This suggests that we probably can’t make a profit on the Snow Serpent unless we submit a low bid and get very lucky. Guess and knock a modertae value (10sp) off the average bid
Where the expect profit is < 0 put in a cheeky low bid just on the off chance we can pick one up cheap. Do this at one below the lowest selling price where there are a reasonable number, otherwise guess and knock 10sp off.
So we have:
lot 1 Yeti 0 days since killed − 56sp lot 2 Snow Serpent 2 days since killed − 21 sp lot 3 Snow Serpent 1 day since killed − 30sp lot 4 Winter Wolf 1 day since killed − 29sp lot 5 Yeti 5 days since killed − 34sp lot 6 Winter Wolf 1 day since killed − 29sp lot 7 Snow Serpent 1 day since killed − 30sp lot 8 Snow Seppent 5 days since killed − 17sp lot 9 Winter Wolf 3 days since killed − 24sp lot 10 Winter Wolf 7 days since killed − 24sp lot 11 Winter Wolf 8 days since killed − 11sp lot 12 Snow Serpent 8 days since killed − 18sp lot 13 Winter Wolf 2 days since killed − 27sp
350sp in total so we don’t have to worry about losing later lots because we spent too much earlier.
Spoiler protection.
Long term pattern of prices falling with time since killed for all monsters.
Yeti are consistently the cheapest. Winter Wolfs start of as the most expensive, but as time since killed
increases the Snow Serpent becomes roughly equal.
Yeti have yielded the highest profit with Snow Wolf the highest losses.
From the description it looks like the winning bid and profit should be independent.
For each lot find similar lots in the past. From the ones Carver didn’t win we can estimate the probability of winning for each possible bid, and from the ones she did win we can estimate the amount of money to be made by selling it. For each lot we can then look for the bif which maximises P(Winning)*Estimated profit.
Yeti 0 days since killed. All other winning bids at 55. 56 Should win with an estimated 18 profit.
Snow Serpent 2 days since killed. All other bids were at 20. 21 should win with estimated 5 profit.
Snow Serpent 1 day since killed. All other bids were at 40. 41 should win with UNKNOWN profit.
Winter Wolf 1 day since killed. All other bids were at 38. 39 should win with estimated −2 profit.
Yeti 5 days since killed. Other bids between 30-33. 34 should win with estimated 24 profit, but there are only 4 other winners, so the risk of losing unless we bid more seem realistic, but that probably won’t offset the risk of losing if we win.
Winter Wolf 1 day since killed. All other bids were at 38. 29 should win with estimated −2 profit.
Snow Serpent 1 day since killed. All other bids were at 40. 41 should win with unknown profit.
Snow serpent 5 days since killed. Other bids 10-16. 17 should win with estimated 10 profit, but only 6 cases where other bidders won. Winter wolf 3 days since killed. Carver won all of these by bidding between 24 and 38 average selling price was 33.
Winter Wolf 7 days since killed. Other bids between 20 − 23. Bidding 24 generates an estimated 1 profit.
Winter Wolf 8 days since killed. Other bids at 20-23. 24 Wins at estimated −3 profit.
Snow Serpent 8 days since killed. Other bids between 12 and 17. 18 wins with an estimated profit of 9.
Winter Wolf 2 days since killed. No non Carver winners. Craver bid between 27 and 41 with an average selling price of 34.
For the cases where there are no non Carver winners it seems reasonable to enter the lowest bid. There are a number of cases where the best non Carver bid is constant, so there is a realistic chance that dropping the bid will guarantee that we don’t win. Whilst there are only a few at the lowest bid it looks like increasing the bid will reduce the expected profits more than can be expected to be gained by increasing the odds of winning.
For the cases where the profit is unknown. Looking at the other data the selling price only seems to drop
by a few sp per day. This suggests that we probably can’t make a profit on the Snow Serpent unless we submit a low bid and get very lucky. Guess and knock a modertae value (10sp) off the average bid
Where the expect profit is < 0 put in a cheeky low bid just on the off chance we can pick one up cheap.
Do this at one below the lowest selling price where there are a reasonable number, otherwise guess and knock 10sp off.
So we have:
lot 1 Yeti 0 days since killed − 56sp
lot 2 Snow Serpent 2 days since killed − 21 sp
lot 3 Snow Serpent 1 day since killed − 30sp
lot 4 Winter Wolf 1 day since killed − 29sp
lot 5 Yeti 5 days since killed − 34sp
lot 6 Winter Wolf 1 day since killed − 29sp
lot 7 Snow Serpent 1 day since killed − 30sp
lot 8 Snow Seppent 5 days since killed − 17sp
lot 9 Winter Wolf 3 days since killed − 24sp
lot 10 Winter Wolf 7 days since killed − 24sp
lot 11 Winter Wolf 8 days since killed − 11sp
lot 12 Snow Serpent 8 days since killed − 18sp
lot 13 Winter Wolf 2 days since killed − 27sp
350sp in total so we don’t have to worry about losing later lots because we spent too much earlier.