I’ll try a concrete example. Of note, fuzziness of goals isn’t the problem, it’s the fact that the consequences on your other priorities are different choosing between the lottery and B, than choosing between A and B.
Let’s say A and B are lots of land on which you could build your new Human Instrumentality Lab. You’ve checking things out and you somewhat prefer lot A to lot B. You get the option (1) definitely get lot B, or (2) go in on a lottery-type auction and get a chance of either lot. In either case, you’ll get the lot at the end of the month.
If you go with (1) you can get the zoning permits, and get your architect started right now. If you go with (2) you can try that, but you may need to back track or do twice the work. It may not be worth doing that if you don’t prefer lot A enough.
Now obviously this isn’t an issue if the knowledge of the outcome of the lottery is instantaneous. But you can’t assume that you immediately know the outcomes of all your gambles.
I’ll try a concrete example. Of note, fuzziness of goals isn’t the problem, it’s the fact that the consequences on your other priorities are different choosing between the lottery and B, than choosing between A and B.
Let’s say A and B are lots of land on which you could build your new Human Instrumentality Lab. You’ve checking things out and you somewhat prefer lot A to lot B. You get the option (1) definitely get lot B, or (2) go in on a lottery-type auction and get a chance of either lot. In either case, you’ll get the lot at the end of the month.
If you go with (1) you can get the zoning permits, and get your architect started right now. If you go with (2) you can try that, but you may need to back track or do twice the work. It may not be worth doing that if you don’t prefer lot A enough.
Now obviously this isn’t an issue if the knowledge of the outcome of the lottery is instantaneous. But you can’t assume that you immediately know the outcomes of all your gambles.