. Bayesian reasoning tells you what to expect given an existing set of beliefs. It doesn’t tell you how to develop those underlying beliefs in the first place
That’s a very important point, and it is a pity that everyone decided to focus on the narrower point about physics.
There’s a wider point, still, about ontological radicalism, doubling back, paradigm shifts and all that Kuhnian stuff that’s completely missed by emphasising Bayes, and thereby implying that everything is a linear stepwise refinement of models under evidence.
That’s a very important point, and it is a pity that everyone decided to focus on the narrower point about physics.
There’s a wider point, still, about ontological radicalism, doubling back, paradigm shifts and all that Kuhnian stuff that’s completely missed by emphasising Bayes, and thereby implying that everything is a linear stepwise refinement of models under evidence.