The workshop report gave “a roughly 14% chance of win if de novo AI (Friendly AI or not) came first” so the two of us seem to be much more pessimistic than average. Do you think we should be updating in their direction, or vice versa? (Unless the workshop is counting “partial wins” like an AI that fills the universe with orgasmium, or what I called “Instrumentally Friendly AI”?)
The workshop report gave “a roughly 14% chance of win if de novo AI (Friendly AI or not) came first” so the two of us seem to be much more pessimistic than average. Do you think we should be updating in their direction, or vice versa? (Unless the workshop is counting “partial wins” like an AI that fills the universe with orgasmium, or what I called “Instrumentally Friendly AI”?)