Well, some disciplines are a bit too hard for humans to actually reason about (such as predicting complex interactions of many people), the demand for something that looks like science results in a supply of pseudoscience. That was the case for medicine through history until relatively recently—very strong demand for some solutions, lack of any genuine solutions, resulting in a situation where frauds and self deception are the best effort.
With the economics, perhaps an extremely intelligent individual may be able to make interesting predictions, but the individual as intelligent as most of the traders can’t predict anything interesting. The ‘political science’ is altogether non-scientific discipline that calls itself science and thus is even worse than garden variety pre-science which is at least scientific enough to see how unscientific it is.
The history would only help predictively if the agents (politicians, etc) were really unaware of history and if little changed since closest precedent, which isn’t at all the case.
Well, some disciplines are a bit too hard for humans to actually reason about (such as predicting complex interactions of many people), the demand for something that looks like science results in a supply of pseudoscience. That was the case for medicine through history until relatively recently—very strong demand for some solutions, lack of any genuine solutions, resulting in a situation where frauds and self deception are the best effort.
With the economics, perhaps an extremely intelligent individual may be able to make interesting predictions, but the individual as intelligent as most of the traders can’t predict anything interesting. The ‘political science’ is altogether non-scientific discipline that calls itself science and thus is even worse than garden variety pre-science which is at least scientific enough to see how unscientific it is.
The history would only help predictively if the agents (politicians, etc) were really unaware of history and if little changed since closest precedent, which isn’t at all the case.