I agree with that, thanks for correcting me! (Made an edit in my comment.)
Splitting the region between two people who live there—ok (with some more details)
Displacing 700 000 people, and inviting strangers to replace them—not ok
The details on splitting the region are that it should approximately follow the locations where those people previously lived (i.e. not something like “the people who previously mostly lived in the south will get the northern part, and vice versa” or “the people who were previously 5% of the population will get 95% of the territory, and vice versa”). Of course, this cannot be done perfectly, a square mile at some place is not equal to a square mile at a different place, and it might be better if the new borders go along some river or mountain, to make them naturally defensible. Also, the people who were e.g. 20% of the population should intuitively get 20% of the territory, even if they were a majority in 0% of cities, I suppose? (Mathematically equivalent to drawing borders and resettling people 1:1, until everyone is on the “correct” side.)
And, after this is done, the people living in one part are free to invite strangers to their homes, keeping the borders unchanged.
My understanding is that Jews were 1⁄3 of the total population, not 20%.
I agree though that the UN plan for Palestine was too generous to Israel, but that might have also be caused by Arab side essentially sabotaging it and not engaging in negotiations?
And the actual outcome for Israel turned out to be even more than the original UN plan was suggesting. Still, I don’t know how a good solution would look like here. Jews were the underdog here and if they wouldn’t secure the territory they secured, it would probably get pretty bloody bad for them. Simply, them having some smaller territory that wouldn’t really be defensible doesn’t seem like a stable equilibrium to me. Also, it’s not like they are discriminating against their Arab citizens (20% of today’s population). I don’t think there would be any Jews alive today would the roles be reversed.
Don’t get me wrong, this is not me trying to absolve them of the war crimes they did, nor me trying to say that it’s fair that they pretty much got most of the land while Arab’s live an an Apartheid state occupied by Israel.
I am just saying that I don’t think that there was some magic easy solution back in 1948 that would lead to magically better situation than there is today.
FYI: This is the proposal from 1937 rejected by Arabs that would have been IMO fair according to population criteria. I have no idea whether that kind of land would be viable from the military point of view. The long thin stretch of blue seems like really hard to defend.
Not sure how much I can trust ChatGPT, but frankly I don’t have energy left for a more serious research, so I asked:
You are a historian. What was the demographics of Palestine before 1948?
I got a list of groups, but no numbers, so I asked again:
Can you estimate the fractions of total population these groups made somewhen around 1920?
Now the same, for 1940.
Now the same for 1900.
I mean, I was interested in what happened before Nakba, but didn’t know how far to go in the past. Too much in the past is less relevant. Too little, on the other hand, includes the Zionist immigrants, and I was interested in the people who lived there traditionally.
ChatGPT said that Arab population was roughly 80-95% of population in 1900 and 1920, and 70-80% in 1940. Jewish population was around 5-10% in 1900, 10-15% in 1920, and 20-30% in 1940. Other minorities, such as Druze, Circassians, and Samaritans, were likely less than 1%.
So, if this is correct, the number “1/3 of the total population” already includes the Zionists that immigrated before 1948. The fraction of Jews traditionally living in Palestine is much smaller.
EDIT:
When I asked about today, ChatGPT gave separate statistics for Israel and Palestinian Territories, so I asked again:
Please express this as a fraction these groups have in the territory of Israel and Palestinian Territories together.
Unfortunately, ChatGPT sucks at math (yes, that also makes the previous numbers suspicious), it just couldn’t do the addition properly, so I asked for absolute numbers instead, and got this: in Israel 7 million Jews and 2 million Arabs, in Palestinian Territories 0 Jews and 7 million Arabs (5 million in the West Bank, 2 million in Gaza). So, assuming I am better at math than ChatGPT, it makes 40-45% Jewish population, and 55-60% Arab population in September 2021.
Sorry, I guess I expressed myself confusingly, the parts about “people who lived in south vs north”, “5% and 95%”, and “20% of population, but a majority in 0% of cities” were all meant only as illustrative examples of what I meant by fair vs unfair division of a territory, not statements on the specific number of people in actual Palestine and their historical locations.
Also, it’s not like they are discriminating against their Arab citizens (20% of today’s population).
Some people disagree with this statement, but unfortunately I don’t the time to figure out who is wrong here. Seemingly no one can agree even on the basic facts, so every single sentence anyone says on this topic needs to be verified. The weekend is over, I am out of time. :(
I have no idea whether that kind of land would be viable from the military point of view. The long thin stretch of blue seems like really hard to defend.
I agree. I am not good at geography, but there seem to be no natural borders in that area, except for the river Jordan.
On the other hand, compared to some fractal-like proposals I have seen, that one seems unbelievably simple.
Another problem seems to be that the areas where both sides live are economically interconnected, so you can’t simply “build a wall” between them. (I think so. Maybe I am wrong here.) My reasoning is that if you build a wall and stop interacting across it, at some point it becomes boring to keep yelling at the wall. But if thousands of people cross the border every day, that is thousand opportunities for some petty aggression to escalate, and a daily reminder how much your enemies suck. (“Good fences make good neighbors.”) Again, I know too little about the commerce in the area to propose a natural place where a wall could be built. Maybe there is no such place.
I agree with that, thanks for correcting me! (Made an edit in my comment.)
Splitting the region between two people who live there—ok (with some more details)
Displacing 700 000 people, and inviting strangers to replace them—not ok
The details on splitting the region are that it should approximately follow the locations where those people previously lived (i.e. not something like “the people who previously mostly lived in the south will get the northern part, and vice versa” or “the people who were previously 5% of the population will get 95% of the territory, and vice versa”). Of course, this cannot be done perfectly, a square mile at some place is not equal to a square mile at a different place, and it might be better if the new borders go along some river or mountain, to make them naturally defensible. Also, the people who were e.g. 20% of the population should intuitively get 20% of the territory, even if they were a majority in 0% of cities, I suppose? (Mathematically equivalent to drawing borders and resettling people 1:1, until everyone is on the “correct” side.)
And, after this is done, the people living in one part are free to invite strangers to their homes, keeping the borders unchanged.
My understanding is that Jews were 1⁄3 of the total population, not 20%.
I agree though that the UN plan for Palestine was too generous to Israel, but that might have also be caused by Arab side essentially sabotaging it and not engaging in negotiations?
And the actual outcome for Israel turned out to be even more than the original UN plan was suggesting. Still, I don’t know how a good solution would look like here. Jews were the underdog here and if they wouldn’t secure the territory they secured, it would probably get pretty bloody bad for them. Simply, them having some smaller territory that wouldn’t really be defensible doesn’t seem like a stable equilibrium to me. Also, it’s not like they are discriminating against their Arab citizens (20% of today’s population). I don’t think there would be any Jews alive today would the roles be reversed.
Don’t get me wrong, this is not me trying to absolve them of the war crimes they did, nor me trying to say that it’s fair that they pretty much got most of the land while Arab’s live an an Apartheid state occupied by Israel.
I am just saying that I don’t think that there was some magic easy solution back in 1948 that would lead to magically better situation than there is today.
FYI: This is the proposal from 1937 rejected by Arabs that would have been IMO fair according to population criteria. I have no idea whether that kind of land would be viable from the military point of view. The long thin stretch of blue seems like really hard to defend.
Not sure how much I can trust ChatGPT, but frankly I don’t have energy left for a more serious research, so I asked:
I got a list of groups, but no numbers, so I asked again:
I mean, I was interested in what happened before Nakba, but didn’t know how far to go in the past. Too much in the past is less relevant. Too little, on the other hand, includes the Zionist immigrants, and I was interested in the people who lived there traditionally.
ChatGPT said that Arab population was roughly 80-95% of population in 1900 and 1920, and 70-80% in 1940. Jewish population was around 5-10% in 1900, 10-15% in 1920, and 20-30% in 1940. Other minorities, such as Druze, Circassians, and Samaritans, were likely less than 1%.
So, if this is correct, the number “1/3 of the total population” already includes the Zionists that immigrated before 1948. The fraction of Jews traditionally living in Palestine is much smaller.
EDIT:
When I asked about today, ChatGPT gave separate statistics for Israel and Palestinian Territories, so I asked again:
Unfortunately, ChatGPT sucks at math (yes, that also makes the previous numbers suspicious), it just couldn’t do the addition properly, so I asked for absolute numbers instead, and got this: in Israel 7 million Jews and 2 million Arabs, in Palestinian Territories 0 Jews and 7 million Arabs (5 million in the West Bank, 2 million in Gaza). So, assuming I am better at math than ChatGPT, it makes 40-45% Jewish population, and 55-60% Arab population in September 2021.
Sorry, I guess I expressed myself confusingly, the parts about “people who lived in south vs north”, “5% and 95%”, and “20% of population, but a majority in 0% of cities” were all meant only as illustrative examples of what I meant by fair vs unfair division of a territory, not statements on the specific number of people in actual Palestine and their historical locations.
Some people disagree with this statement, but unfortunately I don’t the time to figure out who is wrong here. Seemingly no one can agree even on the basic facts, so every single sentence anyone says on this topic needs to be verified. The weekend is over, I am out of time. :(
I agree. I am not good at geography, but there seem to be no natural borders in that area, except for the river Jordan.
On the other hand, compared to some fractal-like proposals I have seen, that one seems unbelievably simple.
Another problem seems to be that the areas where both sides live are economically interconnected, so you can’t simply “build a wall” between them. (I think so. Maybe I am wrong here.) My reasoning is that if you build a wall and stop interacting across it, at some point it becomes boring to keep yelling at the wall. But if thousands of people cross the border every day, that is thousand opportunities for some petty aggression to escalate, and a daily reminder how much your enemies suck. (“Good fences make good neighbors.”) Again, I know too little about the commerce in the area to propose a natural place where a wall could be built. Maybe there is no such place.