I was thinking along our lines, where both groups involve newbies. I predict that the confidence will collapse in whichever groups lack some actual practical knowledge that can achieve success to keep the confidence boosted.
Do you have any prediction as to which group would come out ahead after a sufficient number of iterations?
And as an aside, wouldn’t it be awesome if LW had a prediction market built into it where we could resolve these things?
I was thinking along our lines, where both groups involve newbies. I predict that the confidence will collapse in whichever groups lack some actual practical knowledge that can achieve success to keep the confidence boosted.
Do you have any prediction as to which group would come out ahead after a sufficient number of iterations?
And as an aside, wouldn’t it be awesome if LW had a prediction market built into it where we could resolve these things?