Hmm, I was thinking more of being convinced there’s a “significant probability”, for a definition of “significant probability” that may be much lower than the one you intended. I’m not sure if I’d also claim the paper convinces me of a “high probability”. Agreed that it would be more convincing to the general public if there were an argument for that. I may comment more after rereading.
Apparently you and others have some sort of estimate of probability distribution over time leading you to being alarmed enough to demand action. Maybe it’s say “1% chance in the next 20 years of hard takeoff” or something like that. Say what it is and how you got to it from “conceivability” or “non-impossibility”. If there is a reasoned link that can be analyzed producing such a result, it is no longer a leap of faith; it can be reasoned about rationally and discussed in more detail. Don’t get hung up on the number exactly, use a qualitative measure if you like, but the point is how you got there.
I am not attempting to ridicule hard takeoff or Friendly AI, just giving my opinion about the thesis question of this post: “what can we do to efficiently change the opinion of millions of people...”
Hmm, I was thinking more of being convinced there’s a “significant probability”, for a definition of “significant probability” that may be much lower than the one you intended. I’m not sure if I’d also claim the paper convinces me of a “high probability”. Agreed that it would be more convincing to the general public if there were an argument for that. I may comment more after rereading.
Apparently you and others have some sort of estimate of probability distribution over time leading you to being alarmed enough to demand action. Maybe it’s say “1% chance in the next 20 years of hard takeoff” or something like that. Say what it is and how you got to it from “conceivability” or “non-impossibility”. If there is a reasoned link that can be analyzed producing such a result, it is no longer a leap of faith; it can be reasoned about rationally and discussed in more detail. Don’t get hung up on the number exactly, use a qualitative measure if you like, but the point is how you got there.
I am not attempting to ridicule hard takeoff or Friendly AI, just giving my opinion about the thesis question of this post: “what can we do to efficiently change the opinion of millions of people...”