28% of population at least one dose, 24% fully vaccinated.
89,771 deaths. At 0.5% fatality rate that would be 18 million people ~= 30% of the population.
So maybe 100% immune escape would be a factor 1.5-3? Leaving at least a factor 2-3 for generally increased infectiousness. (Assuming unchanged generation length.)
Quick googling, numbers for south africa:
Population 59 million.
28% of population at least one dose, 24% fully vaccinated.
89,771 deaths. At 0.5% fatality rate that would be 18 million people ~= 30% of the population.
So maybe 100% immune escape would be a factor 1.5-3? Leaving at least a factor 2-3 for generally increased infectiousness. (Assuming unchanged generation length.)