Well, for starters, I’m not sure that Ape in the coat disagrees with my statements above. The disagreement may lie elsewhere, in some idea that it’s not the probability of the urn with 18 green balls being chosen that is relevant, but something else that I’m not clear on. If so, it would be helpful if Ape in the coat would confirm agreement with my statement above, so we could progress onwards to the actual disagreement.
If Ape in the coat does disagree with my statement above, then I really do think that that is in the same category as people who think the “Twin Paradox” disproves special relativity, or that quantum mechanics can’t possibly be true because it’s too weird. And not in the sense of thinking that these well-established physical theories might break down in some extreme situation not yet tested experimentally—the probability calculation above is of a completely mundane sort entirely analogous to numerous practical applications of probability theory. Denying it is like saying that electrical engineers don’t understand how resistors work, or that civil engineers are wrong about how to calculate stresses in bridges.
Well, for starters, I’m not sure that Ape in the coat disagrees with my statements above. The disagreement may lie elsewhere, in some idea that it’s not the probability of the urn with 18 green balls being chosen that is relevant, but something else that I’m not clear on. If so, it would be helpful if Ape in the coat would confirm agreement with my statement above, so we could progress onwards to the actual disagreement.
If Ape in the coat does disagree with my statement above, then I really do think that that is in the same category as people who think the “Twin Paradox” disproves special relativity, or that quantum mechanics can’t possibly be true because it’s too weird. And not in the sense of thinking that these well-established physical theories might break down in some extreme situation not yet tested experimentally—the probability calculation above is of a completely mundane sort entirely analogous to numerous practical applications of probability theory. Denying it is like saying that electrical engineers don’t understand how resistors work, or that civil engineers are wrong about how to calculate stresses in bridges.