It’s hard to tell but I’m not sure your notion of “subjective probability” is coherent- specifically because you keep talking about different events depending on what time you’re in. That sounds like a recipe for disaster. But alright.
I just don’t think that is how scientists generally use the term.
Does this mean we can just agree to specify payouts in our probability problems from now on? Or must we now investigate which one of us is using the term the way scientists do? Unfortunately this disagreement suggest to me that scientists may not know exactly what they mean by subjective probability.
Subjective probability is a basic concept in decision theory. Scientists have certainly tried hard to say exactly what they mean by the term. E.g. see this one, from 1963:
“A Definition of Subjective Probability”—F. J. Anscombe; R. J. Aumann
Sure. I don’t see anything in there to suggest that subjective probability isn’t time symmetrical (by which I mean that a subjective probability regarding an event can be held at any time and there is not reason for the probability to change unless the person’s evidence changes). Can you do a better job formalizing what your alternative is?
It’s hard to tell but I’m not sure your notion of “subjective probability” is coherent- specifically because you keep talking about different events depending on what time you’re in. That sounds like a recipe for disaster. But alright.
Does this mean we can just agree to specify payouts in our probability problems from now on? Or must we now investigate which one of us is using the term the way scientists do? Unfortunately this disagreement suggest to me that scientists may not know exactly what they mean by subjective probability.
Subjective probability is a basic concept in decision theory. Scientists have certainly tried hard to say exactly what they mean by the term. E.g. see this one, from 1963:
“A Definition of Subjective Probability”—F. J. Anscombe; R. J. Aumann
http://www.econ.ucsb.edu/~tedb/Courses/GraduateTheoryUCSB/anscombeaumann.pdf
Sure. I don’t see anything in there to suggest that subjective probability isn’t time symmetrical (by which I mean that a subjective probability regarding an event can be held at any time and there is not reason for the probability to change unless the person’s evidence changes). Can you do a better job formalizing what your alternative is?