I updated the post. Thanks to the many interesting comments, I think I am now better able to describe why the 1⁄3 solution is wrong.
And to be clear, the main point of the post isn’t to show that 1⁄2 is right, but to make the observation about how easy it is to be confident in the wrong answer when it comes to probability problems.
I updated the post. Thanks to the many interesting comments, I think I am now better able to describe why the 1⁄3 solution is wrong.
And to be clear, the main point of the post isn’t to show that 1⁄2 is right, but to make the observation about how easy it is to be confident in the wrong answer when it comes to probability problems.