For Jack’s bookie, I agree, you have to use 1⁄3 – but if you want to calculate a distribution on how much cash Beauty has after the experiment given different betting behavior, it no longer works to treat Monday and Tuesday as mutually exclusive.
For Jack’s bookie, I agree, you have to use 1⁄3 – but if you want to calculate a distribution on how much cash Beauty has after the experiment given different betting behavior, it no longer works to treat Monday and Tuesday as mutually exclusive.