Well you also have to note in the problem description that a particular person is asked, and ask what should their guess be (so far you just got as far as the announcement).
Well, yes, I should also specify that you’ll actually act on the announcement.
But in any case, would anyone find anything strange or counterintuitive about this less exotic formulation, which could be readily tried in the real world? As soon as the somewhat vague “expectation about the result” is stated clearly, the answer should be clear. In particular, if we ignore risk aversion and discount rate, each interviewee should be willing to pay, on the spot, up to $66.66 for an instrument sold by a (so far completely ignorant) third party that pays off $100 if the announced result is tails.
Well you also have to note in the problem description that a particular person is asked, and ask what should their guess be (so far you just got as far as the announcement).
But I think that’s equivalent.
Well, yes, I should also specify that you’ll actually act on the announcement.
But in any case, would anyone find anything strange or counterintuitive about this less exotic formulation, which could be readily tried in the real world? As soon as the somewhat vague “expectation about the result” is stated clearly, the answer should be clear. In particular, if we ignore risk aversion and discount rate, each interviewee should be willing to pay, on the spot, up to $66.66 for an instrument sold by a (so far completely ignorant) third party that pays off $100 if the announced result is tails.